A Tightening Spring — but Buyers Still Hold the Cards

April 2026 marked the first full month of the spring selling season in the GTA, and the numbers reflect a market pulling in two directions. On one hand, home sales increased 7.0% compared to April 2025, and seasonally adjusted figures show both sales and new listings rising month-over-month from March — with sales growing faster, hinting at renewed competition in some neighbourhoods. On the other hand, sellers remained cautious: new listings fell 9.3% year-over-year to 17,097, and average prices slipped a further 4.9% to $1,051,969.

The overall picture is one of gradual rebalancing. Active listings declined 6.4% year-over-year to 25,110, and the average listing days on market rose to 29 days (up 16% from April 2025), underscoring that, while buyers are active, they are selective and price-conscious.

Prices Soften Across All Property Types

Every major home type posted year-over-year price declines in April, though the degree varied significantly. The detached segment — still the priciest category — averaged $1,372,688 across the TRREB area, down 4.1%. Condo apartments, which have faced the steepest correction, averaged $635,653, off 6.3% from a year ago.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, which controls for compositional shifts in the market, was down 6.6% year-over-year — a slightly steeper drop than the average price decline, suggesting price softness is broad-based rather than driven by a shift toward lower-end properties.

Sales by Property Type

Detached homes dominated transaction volume in April, accounting for nearly half of all sales. Condo apartments were the second most active segment, followed by townhouses and semi-detached homes.

416 and 905 Region Highlights

Toronto proper (416) recorded 2,312 sales at an average price of $1,091,761, reflecting the premium that comes with urban density and proximity to downtown. The broader 905 region accounted for the majority of transactions, with stronger activity in York Region (546 sales, averaging $987,628) and Durham Region (708 sales, averaging $844,018).

Notably, the City of Toronto saw sales-to-list ratios come in around 99–100% in many districts, while select west-end neighbourhoods such as W02 and W07 showed ratios above 105%, signalling pockets of competitive bidding even in a softening market.

Affordability Improves, but Caution Persists

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate held at 2.3% in April — dramatically lower than the peaks of the tightening cycle — and that has filtered meaningfully into buying power. Five-year mortgage rates remain around 6.09%, but buyers who locked in short-term one-year products at 5.49% have benefited from improved monthly carrying costs compared to a year ago.

That said, Toronto's unemployment rate remained elevated at 8.1% in March, and the broader Canadian economy contracted slightly in Q4 2025 (−0.6% annualized). Inflation, at 2.4% year-over-year, is within the Bank's target range but above its 2% midpoint, limiting the scope for further rate cuts. These macro headwinds explain why, despite more sales activity this spring, buyer confidence has not fully recovered and prices continue to drift lower.

What to Watch into Late Spring

The interplay between declining new listings and rising sales is the most important dynamic to monitor. If the trend holds — buyers absorbing inventory faster than sellers replenish it — months of inventory will contract further and price declines should moderate or stabilize. TRREB data already shows the average selling price edging higher on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis in April, a potential early signal.

TRREB's recently released housing policy report, Removing Roadblocks: Tackling Municipal Barriers to Housing Supply and Affordability in Ontario, highlights the structural supply constraints that continue to underpin the long-term market. Without meaningful new construction, any sustained return of demand will eventually press prices upward again.

For buyers on the sidelines, the data suggest the window of maximum affordability may be narrowing — but macro uncertainties, including trade policy and geopolitical risk, counsel patience. For sellers, well-priced properties in desirable micro-markets are still selling quickly and near asking.